The current btc to eur exchange rate volatility, holding costs, and market sentiment are the key determinants of whether or not to exchange. The price of Bitcoin relative to the euro on October 17, 2024, was 28,600 euros, increasing by 2.9% above the 30-day moving average (27,800 euros), but decreasing by 8.3% from its 2024 peak (31,200 euros). The average daily volume of Coinbase’s BTC/EUR trading pair is 210 million euros, and the spread is 0.04% (buy one at 28,580 euros, sell one at 28,610 euros). If you exchange 10 BTC (approximately 286,000 euros), the slippage fee is approximately 114 euros (0.04%). However, an exchange fee of 0.1% (286 euros) is charged through Binance. If euro withdrawal under SEPA is chosen, there is an additional 0.15% bank fee (429 euros), which will result in a total cost of exchange equal to 715 euros (considering 0.25%), which can erode short-term profits.
Macroeconomic measures influence exchange decisions. The eurozone CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year during September, with core inflation standing at 4.2%. The interest rate was left unchanged at 4.25% by the European Central Bank, resulting in a depreciation of 5.1% of the euro against the US dollar this year. This had the indirect effect of raising the performance of Bitcoin in euros (the annualized rate of return of Bitcoin in US dollars is 45%, and in euros is 52%). But if the threat of economic recession in the eurozone aggravates (the IMF forecasts a GDP growth rate of 0.6% in 2024), the exchange to euros can encounter the depreciation of fiat currency’s purchasing power – as far as the euro inflation rate over the next year is 3.5%, inflation must be subtracted from the actual profits from keeping euros, and the average annual return rate of Bitcoin over the period of time 2015-2024 equals 89%. It can offer more hedging.
On-chain data and market sentiment supply references. Realized price on the current Bitcoin chain (Realized price) is €23,500. The current price (€28,600) is 21.7% above that level, so most holders are in profit. Glassnode data reports the median cost for short-term holders (holding for <155 days) at 26,800 euros with a floating profit rate of 6.7%. If traded at this level, the net return on after-handling fees is approximately 4.2%. The long-term holders’ cost (holding for more than one year) is 15,300 euros, with a floating profit rate of 86.9%. Exchange may lead to a loss of potential gains (Based on the ARK Invest model, Bitcoin’s target value in 2025 is 120,000 US dollars and the euro value is approximately 43,000 euros). Furthermore, the exchange net outflow has been positive for three consecutive weeks (average daily outflow is 2,400 BTC) and this indicates a very high level of hoarding sentiment or can be translated that the bottom is imminent in the market.
Tax and regulatory regimes contribute to exchange complexity. The EU’s Crypto Markets Act (MiCA) requiring that from 2025, the exchange of Bitcoin in amounts over 1,000 euros have to be subject to a tax report (for a fee ranging from 50 to 200 euros per transaction). Germany is exempt from taxation of capital gains on Bitcoin held in excess of one year but for short-term trading (holding for less than one year) there is an income tax of 25% to 45%. As an example, if 28,600 euros are invested in Bitcoin purchased in 2023 (with a cost price of 19,000 euros), a taxable profit of 9,600 euros (at a tax rate of 25%, i.e., 2,400 euros) has to be paid out, and the actual received return is diluted by 10.5%. On the other hand, holding for one year could preserve this fraction of the cost.
Institutional flows and market cycles transmit signals. In the third quarter of 2024, European institutions invested 23,000 (or roughly 6.58 billion euros) in Bitcoin through ETNs (e.g., ABTC of 21Shares), and the EUR hedge fund share premium rate of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) fell from -12% to -3%, indicating a bounce-back in bullish sentiment among institutions. Looking at historical cycles, Bitcoin has risen by an average of 325% in the 12 months following the halving year (April 2024). Now it may still have a gain of 120% to 150% (approximately 34,000 to 39,000 euros in euros) from the cycle high (using October 2025 as an example). However, short-term threats are heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase (probability measures suggest a 42% chance of a 25 basis point increase in December), which would trigger a pullback of the btc to eur exchange rate to the 26,000 euro support level (9.1% below current price).
In conclusion, the exchange option must weigh the short-term benefit against the long-term opportunity cost. If risk tolerance is low and there is a need for emergency liquidity or potential loss of 6%-9% can be borne, the current btc to eur exchange rate provides a reasonable exit window. If holding period can be extended beyond one year and if it is to beat the cycle returns or combat inflation, the holding strategy is better. Bloomberg data say that among the users who have exchanged Bitcoin with euros in 2024, only 37% achieved a higher fiat money return in the following three months (since they lost the typical 19% profit). Dynamically adjusting goes along with specific personal financial targets and market trends.